FNUS76 KMFR 172334
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR NUGGET BUTTE...ODF MEDFORD UNIT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
434 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 PDT ON AUGUST 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING STEERED NORTHWEST AND OVER OR NEAR THE FIRE
LOCATION. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
AFTER NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY...AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP SOME.  WINDS SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.
ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY THERE IS NOT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.




.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SMOKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 6PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-85 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 4 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL LATER
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....93-95.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 4 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    AFTER NOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 4 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING BECOMING 5 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.

$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...KELSEY LEMING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120817.NUGGE.03/MFR