FNUS76 KMFR 190024
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE...OIIMT2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
524 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1651 PDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FIRE TONIGHT...WITH A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS AS THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE MOIST
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  STABILITY AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. SLOPE FLOWS WILL AFFECT THE FIRE THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WHILE STRONGER BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY SHOULD
PROVIDE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FIRE AT THE 20 FT LEVEL...WITH
SLOPE FLOW MORE LIKELY AT EYE LEVEL. TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR
SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY BECAUSE OF A DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTING IN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WILDFIRE BY 6PM.
                    GUSTY WINDS AND SOME RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
                    IN AND NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-27 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH ON THE WEST FACING SLOPE.
                    UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH ON THE EAST FACING
                    SLOPE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FEET AGL LOWERING TO 5000 FEET AGL TOWARD
                    EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 8 MPH ON THE
                    WEST FACING SLOPE.
                    UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 7 MPH
                    ON THE EAST FACING SLOPE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH ON THE WEST FACING
                    SLOPE.
                    WEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH ON THE EAST FACING
                    SLOPE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 5 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT EARLY THEN 5 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH ON THE WEST FACING
                    SLOPE.
                    WEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH ON THE EAST FACING
                    SLOPE.


.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF
                    SMOKE..
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH ON THE WEST FACING SLOPE.
                    UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH ON THE EAST FACING
                    SLOPE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 16 MPH ON
                    THE WEST FACING SLOPE.
                    WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH ON THE EAST FACING
                    SLOPE.

$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120818.BUTTE.01/MFR