FNUS76 KMFR 190104
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE...OIIMT2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
604 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1651 PDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FIRE TONIGHT...WITH A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS AS THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE MOIST
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  STABILITY AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. SLOPE FLOWS WILL AFFECT THE FIRE THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WHILE STRONGER BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY SHOULD
PROVIDE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FIRE AT THE 20 FT LEVEL...WITH
SLOPE FLOW MORE LIKELY AT EYE LEVEL. TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR
SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY BECAUSE OF A DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH SLOPE FLOWS AGAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.


.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF
                    SMOKE..
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH ON THE WEST FACING SLOPE.
                    UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH ON THE EAST FACING
                    SLOPE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 16 MPH ON
                    THE WEST FACING SLOPE.
                    WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH ON THE EAST FACING
                    SLOPE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE EAST WINDS ON WEST FACING SLOPES 0 TO 2 MPH.
                    DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ON EAST FACING SLOPES 0 TO 2 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE EAST WINDS ON WEST FACING SLOPES 1 TO 3 MPH.
                    DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ON EAST FACING SLOPES 1 TO 3 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120818.BUTTE.01/MFR