FNUS75 KRIW 181655 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1055 AM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1045 MDT ON AUGUST 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL REAPPEAR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE SMOKY AIR. AFTER TODAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...LIPSON .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1400. THEN WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700-7700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13000-30700 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43. MAX HUMIDITY........51-54 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE MORNING AT 3 TO 7 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1800-19300 KNOT-FT). .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72. MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.17 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8900-9900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (41600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (96500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...LIPSON REQUESTED BY...USFS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120818.BUTTE.01/RIW