FNUS75 KABQ 191709
FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRAIDED CAVE...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA IS GENERATING
SUBSIDING AIR WHICH IS RESULTING IN INVERSIONS OR STABLE LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THAT WILL INHIBIT VENTILATION OVER THE FIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  VENTILATION
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AROUND THE FIRE.  PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND RELATIVELY
HIGH DAYTIME RH VALUES. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASING MOISTURE TREND AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GENERATE WETTING RAINS TODAY
AND TOMORROW...WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

FOR TODAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                       THUNDERSTORMS.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......40 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80-84.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 35-40 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND
                       ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR/42000 KNOT-FT AT 1200 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/35200 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING POOR/27263 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                       THUNDERSTORMS.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......40 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52-56.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAX 89-94 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND
                       ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/32500 KNOT-FT BY EARLY-EVENING BECOMING
                       POOR/5000 KNOT-FT BY LATE-EVENING.

FOR MONDAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING
                       MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                       THUNDERSTORMS.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......40 PERCENT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78-82.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 44-49 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO 11
                       MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                       WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 13 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD/103427 KNOT-FT AT 1700 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...FAIR/55185 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING
                       BECOMING VERY GOOD/103427 KNOT-FT BY
                       MID-AFTERNOON.

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER...01

$$

REQUESTED BY...BRENDON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120819.BRAID.01/ABQ