FNUS76 KMFR 192338
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE...OIIMT2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1608 PDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY.  WIND FLOW WILL BE SIMILAR AS SURFACE AND UPPER WINDS REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL IN DIRECTION AND SPEED. THEREFORE...SLOPE DRIVEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND NIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SIMILAR. ONE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL MOISTEN
SOME...PROVIDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE WILDFIRE
LOCATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. VERY GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE WILDFIRE.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON..
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE EAST WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH THROUGH
                    12PM. THEN UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH AFTER 12PM.
                    EAST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH THROUGH
                    11AM. THEN UPSLOPE EAST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH AFTER 11AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT AFTER 2PM.
LAL.................1 BEFORE 2PM.  2 AFTER 2PM.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE EAST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH THROUGH
                    12PM. THEN UPSLOPE WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17 MPH
                    AFTER 12PM.
                    EAST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH THROUGH
                    11AM. THEN UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 12 MPH
                    AFTER 11AM.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 9PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-41.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE EAST WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT.
                    EAST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS 0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 8 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT BEFORE 9PM. THEN 0 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................2 BEFORE 9PM. THEN 0 AFTER 9PM.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE EAST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH OVERNIGHT.
                    EAST FACING SLOPES: DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH OVERNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.


$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120819.BUTTE.01/MFR