FNUS75 KRIW 191851
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1251 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1220 MDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN ADEQUATE PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MEAGER...
SO MOST OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT VERY ISOLATED. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY...
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...SO A GREATER
NUMBER OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY WITH MORE LARGE-SCALE INSTABILITY EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...SO WIDELY SCATTERED TO EVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MARGINALLY WET CELLS
ANTICIPATED...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED CRITICAL FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH
                    BY 1600 AND THEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH
                    BY 1700. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000-10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (118800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-63 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......FLUCTUATING BETWEEN WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 5 TO 9 MPH.
                    AFTER 2100 EAST NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 MPH THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200-3200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (83500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (21800
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH. THEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN WEST
                    AND NORTH BETWEEN 1000 AND 1300 AT 5 TO 9 MPH.
                    AFTER 1300 UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10900-11900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (38000-71800 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...JON FREEMAN
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120819.BUTTE.01/RIW