FNUS75 KRIW 201934
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...BRIDGER TETON NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
134 PM MDT MON AUG 20 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1315 MDT ON AUGUST 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500 THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW BASED...NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
DRY MICROBURST WINDS. ALSO THE STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST SO THE
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS
IS INCREASING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A
MORE PROMINENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
BEHIND MORE MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69 AT 9400 FEET AND 66 AT 10900 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BUT MAINLY WEST SOUTHWEST
                    3 TO 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.27 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (33400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF
                    SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........59-62 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13100-25500 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75 AT 9400 FEET AND 71 AT 10900 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. WINDS BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST
                    AT 7 TO 11 MPH AFTER 1600 WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500-8500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 8
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (13800-47100 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...BUTTE FIRE IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120820.BUTTE.01/RIW