FNUS75 KRIW 212003
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
203 PM MDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 MDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS WYOMING TONIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEATHER FEATURE MOVING EAST TO WYOMING...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY THE ENERGY WILL
SPLIT NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AXIS OF A MAIN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR SOME INCREASE IN WIND. A TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY INNOCUOUS WEATHER THURSDAY. THEN A DRY BUT VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS WYOMING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
WINDS INCREASING AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AHEAD OF IT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100-8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (91000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AT 2000...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING
                    TO 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.16 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900-7900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4000-5000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60200-99500 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. INTERMITTENT
                    SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71 AT 10900 FEET AND 74 AT 9400 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH BY 1200. THEN WINDS FLUCTUATING
                    BETWEEN WEST AND NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH BY 1600. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.16 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500-8500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (88500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (150900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
11 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120821.BUTTE.01/RIW