FNUS75 KGJT 222008
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USA PC 2012 - STAGE 4  ASPEN BEAVER CREEK...CSP IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
208 PM MDT WED AUG 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1306 MDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM DRIVING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY NOON ON THURSDAY. THE APPROACH
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH LIMITED IN OVERALL
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ONWARD.
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORMS TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE RACE ROUTE BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH LOW
TO MID 60S EXPECTED NEAR THE FINISH LINE.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
                    THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 AT THE START IN ASPEN
                    AND IN THE LOW 50S NEAR INDEPENDENCE PASS
                    AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
                    WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
                    VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AT THE HIGHER
                    ELEVATIONS.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56% IN MOUNTAINS.
                    35-40% IN THE VALLEYS.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VALLEY WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING DOWNVALLEY SLOPE
                    AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THEN
                    UPVALLEY AT 6 TO 11 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN
                    TOP WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DEPUTY BURCHETTA
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20120822.USAPC.02/GJT