FNUS75 KRIW 221928
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
128 PM MDT WED AUG 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1215 MDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED OVER THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED GUSTY SINCE ITS PASSAGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BECOME LIGHT
A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL STAY POOR...UNLESS THE WILDFIRE
IS FORTUNATE TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN TONIGHT. DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY. ELEVATED TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LAVOIE

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72 BELOW 9500 FT...63-69 ABOVE 9500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT BELOW 9500 FT...20-30 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 9500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 40 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8700-9700 FT AGL BY 1500 THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1500 THIS AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47 BELOW 9500 FT...40-44 ABOVE 9500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-48 PERCENT BELOW 9500 FT...48-52 PERCENT ABOVE
                    9500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...BECOMING 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL
                    AFTER 2400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2300-3200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO FAIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73 BELOW 9500 FT...66-70 ABOVE 9500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT...BELOW 9500 FT...25-32 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 9500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1800 BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7600-8600 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LAVOIE
REQUESTED BY...JUAN EDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120822.ALPIN.01/RIW