FNUS75 KRIW 221849
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1249 PM MDT WED AUG 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1245 MDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FIRE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY STORM ACTIVITY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE AND IMPROVE
WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GAINS MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WARM AND VERY DRY OVER THE FIRE...WITH PERIODS
OF GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF THESE
ELEMENTS AND THEIR POTENTIAL CREATION OF CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR HAS
RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SMOKE
FROM FIRES FURTHER WEST CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT OVER THE STATE
TODAY...AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SMOKE COVER FROM WHAT IS
BEING PRODUCED BY THE FIRE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) BY 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-71 BELOW 9800 FT....64-67 ABOVE 9800 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT...ALL LEVELS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BY 1500.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    BY 1500.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500-9300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 31 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (105100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (270000 KNOT-FT) BY 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT) BY 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46 BELOW 9800 FT...38-42 ABOVE 9800 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-56 PERCENT...ALL LEVELS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 2100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15
                    TO 20 MPH AROUND 2400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100-7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2600-3600 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (149000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (54400 KNOT-FT) BY 0100.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72 BELOW 9800 FT...65-68 ABOVE 9800 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-23 PERCENT...ALL LEVELS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700-7700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (94300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (210400 KNOT-FT) BY 1300.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 11 MPH.

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...BUTTE FIRE IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120822.BUTTE.01/RIW