FNUS75 KRIW 231517
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
917 AM MDT THU AUG 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0836 MDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

DRY WEST FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FIRE FOR FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WIND EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINE THESE GUSTY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
LOW HUMIDITY AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS APPEAR
SIMILAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. PLEASE VISIT OUR FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE PARAMETER VALUES AND TIMING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74 AROUND 9000 FT...64-68 AROUND 10500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT...20-23 PERCENT
                    AROUND 10500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST
                    10-15 MPH BY 1200. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 12-17 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........INCREASING TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8800-9800 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (67000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (185500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-49 AROUND 9000 FT...39-42 AROUND 10500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-56 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT...58-61 PERCENT
                    AROUND 10500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER 0300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 4
                    OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AFTER 0100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL BY
                    0300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (85300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (28000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72 AROUND 9000 FT...60-63 AROUND 10500.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT...18-21 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 10500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 18 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 40 MPH AFTER 1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........INCREASING TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AFTER 1100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-4900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (114700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (218500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.

.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...JUAN EDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120823.ALPIN.01/RIW