FNUS75 KRIW 241512
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
912 AM MDT FRI AUG 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0845 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TODAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS INCREASED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG WIND THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FIRE. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE FIRE...CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...PERIODS OF STRONG WIND...AND LOW HUMIDITY
HAVE RESULTED IN A RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE FIRE. THOUGH A LULL
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHEN HUMIDITY WILL RISE ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...ANOTHER STRONGER SURGE OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...KEEPING RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE FIRE.
EXPECT DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THESE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING HIGHER DAYTIME HUMIDITY...LESS
ANTICIPATED WIND...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-71 AROUND 9000 FT...63-66 AROUND 10500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT...19-22 PERCENT
                    AROUND 10500.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........INCREASING TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8100-9100 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (114900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (237700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-41 AROUND 9000 FT...34-37 AROUND 10500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-43 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT...44-47 PERCENT
                    AROUND 10500.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER 0100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20
                    MPH AROUND 2100.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 4 OR
                    LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH AFTER 0100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL
                    AROUND 0300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 33 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 22
                    MPH AROUND 2100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (141900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (13200 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-70 AROUND 9000 FT...62-65 AROUND 10500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-13 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT...15-18 PERCENT
                    AROUND 10500.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........INCREASING TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500-9500 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (71700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (177500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...CAL ANACKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120824.ALPIN.01/RIW