FNUS75 KRIW 241936
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
136 PM MDT FRI AUG 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1248 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING BY MIDNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH'S IN THE TEENS OR LOWER WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE THREAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LAVOIE

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67 BELOW 9500 FT...63-60 ABOVE 9500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT BELOW 9500 FT...18-22 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 9500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8200 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 28 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 38 MPH BY
                    1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BY 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43 BELOW 9500 FT...43-46 ABOVE 9500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........42-45 PERCENT BELOW 9500 FT...46-50 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 9500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    35 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    BY 2300...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 4 OR LOW
                    POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67 BELOW 9500 FT...60-63 ABOVE 9500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT BELOW 9500 FT...17-20 PERCENT ABOVE
                    9500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BY NOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LAVOIE
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120824.BUTTE.01/RIW