FNUS75 KRIW 250954
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CYGNET FIRE...YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
354 AM MDT SAT AUG 25 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2044 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

IT WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 2100 DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (39800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (132000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-63 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
                    MPH UNTIL 2000L.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 17 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4200-5100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (120000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (75000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY BY 1200L (60-70 PERCENT).
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 16
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER 1500L.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700-6700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000-10000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 1400L.
                    (90000-160000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120824.CYGNE.01/RIW