FNUS75 KRIW 261030
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CYGNET...YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
430 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2036 MDT ON AUGUST 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2200. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY IF ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE AREA WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. DRY AND WARM
...BUT WITH SUB CRITICAL WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2...THEN 6 AFTER 1500.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12800-13800 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (83500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (178700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER 2200. AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700-7700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-2100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (101700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (50000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
                    35 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-6400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9200-10200 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (91700-136600 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120825.CYGNE.01/RIW