FNUS75 KRIW 251846
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1246 PM MDT SAT AUG 25 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1240 MDT ON AUGUST 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 2100 THIS EVENING...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIND OVER THE
FIRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS WILL CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE HUMIDITY HAS A CHANCE TO REBOUND. HUMIDITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH GUSTY WIND MAY REMAIN OVER THE FIRE. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FIRE...AND
MAY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCLUDE
SOME DRY LIGHTNING AFTER A SOMEWHAT LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS. COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THOUGH THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7900-8900 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (220000 KNOT-FT) BY
                    1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........42-46 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH AND GUSTY...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AFTER 2000.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER 0100.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1400-1900 FT AGL BY 0300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH AFTER 0200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (99600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (17000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 14
                    TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BY 1400.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER 1300 AND INCREASING TO 20 TO
                    25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7300-8300 FT AGL AFTER 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    23 TO 28 MPH AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (220000 KNOT-FT)
                    AFTER 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120825.NORTH.01/RIW