FNUS75 KRIW 261505
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
905 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0828 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

A SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
FIRE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE OVERALL DRY STATUS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND AGAIN TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DRY
LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR NEAR OR OVER THE FIRE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TODAY AS THEY MOVE OVER THE WIND RIVER
MOUNTAINS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERIODS OF
GUSTY WIND WILL BE FOUND OVER THE FIRE...THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD NOT
BE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THESE CONCERNS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER RED FLAG
WARNING OVER THE FIRE WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS WELL...WITH ANOTHER
PUSH OF MOISTURE BRINGING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) BY 1100.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74 AROUND 9000 FT...63-67 AROUND 10500.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT...16-20 PERCENT
                    AROUND 10500.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-15 MPH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH...INCREASING
                    TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AROUND 1500.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 31 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (114100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (218100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-51 AT 9000 FT...42-46 AROUND 10500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-56 PERCENT AT ALL LEVELS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 25 MPH AFTER 0300. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 4 OR
                    LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH BY 0200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2600 FT AGL
                    BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 33 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (146900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (70500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75 AROUND 9000 FT...63-67 AROUND 10500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 PERCENT AROUND 9000 FT....22-25 PERCENT
                    AROUND 10500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9000-10000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (144600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (282100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
12 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...CAL ANACKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120826.ALPIN.01/RIW