FNUS75 KRIW 262057
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
257 PM MDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1422 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRE. THIS SURGE
OF MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE OVERALL DRY STATUS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AGAIN TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DRY
LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR NEAR OR OVER THE FIRE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THEY MOVE OVER THE FIRE. THESE
CONCERNS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE FIRE
WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL...WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE BRINGING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WIND ANTICIPATED AROUND THE FIRE.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LAVOIE

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70 BELOW 10000...64-68 ABOVE 10000.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000-8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-80 PERCENT) BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) AFTER 2200. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47 BELOW 10000....48-52 ABOVE 10000.
MAX HUMIDITY........54-57 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 14-18 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH 2200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300-6300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2300-3100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS BY 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72 BELOW 10000...63-67 ABOVE 10000.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH BY 1500. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BY
                    1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
                    MPH BY 1500.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 11 MPH.
.TUESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LAVOIE
REQUESTED BY...BUTTE FIRE IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120826.BUTTE.01/RIW