FNUS75 KRIW 271037
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CYGNET FIRE...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
437 AM MDT MON AUG 27 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1846 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LITTLE
OR NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER 1800. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND
WARM. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...INCREASING WINDS AND MOVING A SWATH OF VERY DRY AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH
THE CANOPY ON WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 12 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0500...THEN 1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (78600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (137900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) IN THE EVENING THEN
                    BECOMING CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-76 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3100-4100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (108600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (49800 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 12 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400-7400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (71200-106600 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120826.CYGNE.01/RIW