FNUS75 KRIW 261628
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR DOG CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1028 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1025 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

A SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
FIRE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE OVERALL DRY STATUS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND AGAIN TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DRY
LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR NEAR OR OVER THE FIRE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND TODAY AS THEY MOVE OVER THE FIRE. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE FIRE...THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. REGARDLESS...THESE CONCERNS
HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE FIRE WHICH WILL
LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL...WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE BRINGING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WIND ANTICIPATED AROUND THE FIRE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) BY 1100.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
                    AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75 AT 8000 FT...70-73 AT 9000 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-29 PERCENT AT 8000 FT...28-31 PERCENT AT
                    9000 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
                    10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 AFTER 1400. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300-8400 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (62300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (211600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) AFTER 2200.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-51 AT ALL LEVELS.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-68 PERCENT AT ALL LEVELS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 19-25 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500-6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2700-3200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (127900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (59700 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79 AT 8000 FT...73-76 AT 9000 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT AT 8000 FT....22-25 PERCENT AT
                    9000 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER
                    1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8700-9700 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (213900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...MOE
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120826.DOGCR.01/RIW