FNUS75 KRIW 261809
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1209 PM MDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1140 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FIRE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE OVERALL DRY STATUS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND AGAIN TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DRY LIGHTNING MAY
OCCUR NEAR OR OVER THE FIRE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AS THEY MOVE OVER THE FIRE. THESE CONCERNS HAVE
RESULTED IN ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING OVER THE FIRE WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY
AS WELL...WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE BRINGING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED
GUSTY WIND ANTICIPATED AROUND THE FIRE.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LAVOIE

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH BY 1600. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    BY 1600.
LAL.................6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........59-62 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7
                    MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH BY 1400.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 25 MPH BY 1500.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LAVOIE
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120826.NORTH.01/RIW