FNUS75 KTFX 271242
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW PASS COMPLEX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
642 AM MDT MON AUG 27 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0605 MDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE IN AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FIRE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...SMOKE AROUND THE
REGION MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FROM STORMS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WILL BUILD
BACK WEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY...FOR A MUCH LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COOL FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. RIDGES
WILL HAVE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVER AT NIGHT...BUT VALLEYS SHOULD AT
LEAST HAVE MODERATE RECOVERY.  COULSTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FIRE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  MPJ/COULSTON

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 VALLEYS...73-78 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
                    25 MPH POSSIBLE. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
                    MPH POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SMOKE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 VALLEYS...50-55 RIDGES.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT VALLEYS...40-45 PERCENT RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND AND
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. ERRATIC WINDS GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 VALLEYS...74-79 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...COULSTON
REQUESTED BY...KIP COLBY  T3IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120827.ELBOW.01/TFX