FNUS75 KRIW 290602
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1202 AM MDT WED AUG 29 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2208 MDT ON AUGUST 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS...AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE WILDFIRE AREA. THE WIND
COMBINED WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78 AT 7500 FT. 68 AT 10000 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT ALL ELEVATIONS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST
                    12-18 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. GUSTS TO 40
                    MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT MID ELEVATION AND RIDGES. AROUND 50
                    PERCENT IN VALLEYS.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    AROUND 30 IN THE EVENING...BECOMING WEST TO
                    SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BY 9 PM...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    10 MPH BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    10 MPH BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO POOR BY MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75 AT 7500 FT. 65 AT 10000 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT AT 7500 FT. 20 PERCENT AT 10000 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15-20
                    MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.1 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120828.NORTH.02/RIW