FNUS75 KRIW 292342
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
542 PM MDT WED AUG 29 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1703 MDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH THE WIND DECREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT UP ON THE RIDGETOPS. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL RETURN AGAIN BY NOON AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY FORM OVER OR NEAR THE FIRE AFTER 1400 THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OR STORMS FRIDAY AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WILL STILL SEE VERY DRY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE MORE MOIST CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........31-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST AT 7 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL
                    2300.  THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH AFTER
                    2300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
                    THEN SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH...DECREASING
                    TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR AT MIDNIGHT...THEN POOR AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    AROUND 15 MPH AFTER 1100.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
                    25 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 1300...THEN EXCELLENT
                    AFTER 1300.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-44 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
                    15 MPH UNTIL 2100.  THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH UNTIL 2100.
                    THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 2100.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN LAL 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH UNTIL 2100.
                    THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH AFTER 2100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR BY 2300...THEN POOR
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62 TO 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1200...THEN VERY GOOD
                    AFTER 1300.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120829.BUTTE.01/RIW