FNUS75 KRIW 301044 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 444 AM MDT THU AUG 30 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2021 MDT ON AUGUST 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FIRE AREA TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...SKRBAC .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALL DAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76 AT 8000 FEET AND 66-68 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 10 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 22 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-8500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (57800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (170000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-49. MAX HUMIDITY........53-56 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 23 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (105700 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR (30000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76 AT 8000 FEET AND 64-67 AT 10000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 23 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8000-8500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 21 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100000 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT 160000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SKRBAC REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120829.NORTH.02/RIW