FNUS75 KRIW 302047
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
247 PM MDT THU AUG 30 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1416 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE FIRE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SMOKE COVER FROM THE NORTH BUFFALO FIRE
MAY INHIBIT SOME DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY MAKING STORM DEVELOPMENT
MORE DIFFICULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM UPSTREAM AND CAN
MOVE OVER THE BUTTE CREEK. WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH STORM
ACTIVITY FRIDAY ANY SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN
EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN SATURDAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT.
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY REDUCING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR LESS THAN ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BERC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 17 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200-9200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (212800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-53 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH AND GUSTY BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AFTER 2100...
                    THEN BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 10 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900-7900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3800-4800 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (176100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (88500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH
                    THE DAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-29 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2-3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (124400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (174700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BERC
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120830.BUTTE.01/RIW