FNUS75 KRIW 311015
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CYGNET FIRE...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
415 AM MDT FRI AUG 31 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2150 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASING PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY WITH THESE STORMS TODAY
BUT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE CHANCE OF WETTER SHOWERS
INCREASES WITH LESS STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6-10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200 THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (140000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
                    NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-91 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700-7700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500-2000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (105000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (30000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-52 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
LAL.................2...INCREASING TO 3 AFTER 1500L.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (65000-80000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120830.CYGNE.01/RIW