FNUS75 KRIW 311042
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH BUFFALO...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
442 AM MDT FRI AUG 31 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1906 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASING PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS. SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY WITH THESE STORMS TODAY
BUT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THE CHANCE OF WETTER SHOWERS
INCREASES WITH LESS STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDELY
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73 AROUND 7500 FEET TO 62-64 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6-10
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200 THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100-7100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH AFTER 1000L.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (35000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000L THEN BECOMING
                    VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON (110000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-10 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN DOWNSLOPE/
                    DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100L THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500-2000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR BY MIDNIGHT
                   (30000 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-70 AT 7500 FEET WITH 59-62 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-47 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 9
                    TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2...BECOMING 3 AFTER 1500L.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (68000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...ROD DYKEHOUSE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120830.NORTH.01/RIW