FNUS73 KLBF 010247
FWSLBF

SPOT FORECAST FOR WELLNITZ FIRE  HAYS SPRINGS RUSHVILLE...NEMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
947 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2030 MDT ON AUGUST 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THE WIND FORECAST CALLS FOR SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT A SLIGHT
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 AM.
ALSO...THIS EVENING...SFC OBS AT WHITE CLAY AND PINE RIDGE ARE
SHOWING A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BUT THIS SHOULD
STRAIGHTEN OUT AND BECOME DUE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT.

LOCALLY...GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND POSSIBLY STRONGER COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM AND POSSIBLY LAST LATER. THIS ARE HARD TO
FORECAST AS THE MODELS SUGGEST FREQUENT 30 MPH GUSTS. NOTE THAT
IF THESE GUSTS DONT DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM THEN THEY MAY NOT
DEVELOP AT ALL.

FINALLY LOCAL RADAR FROM RAPID CITY COMBINED WITH SATELLITE DATA
SUGGESTS A LARGE FIRE BURNING ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF PINE
RIDGE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS THE WELLNITZ FIRE 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PINE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST SHERIDAN COUNTY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 200 FT AGL AFTER 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO POOR.

TIME (MDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........23     24     24     24     23
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............79     75     73     71     69
RH..............18     22     26     28     31
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 10   S 14   S 14   S 12
20 FT WIND GUST.25     25     30     30     30
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 10   S 10   S 14   S 14   S 12
EYE LEVEL WIND..25     25     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....6      6      6      6      6

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 13000-14900 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 21
                    TO 29 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........23     23     23     23     24     26
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     74     84     92     96     97
RH..............33     32     21     16     13     12
20 FT WIND......S 11   S 11   S 12   S 14   S 14   S 12
20 FT WIND GUST.25     25     30     30     30     30
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 11   S 11   S 12   S 14   S 14   S 12
EYE LEVEL WIND..25     25     30     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....6      6      6      6      6      6

$$
FORECASTER...COLE 308 532-0921
REQUESTED BY...SHEILA HASCALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120831.WELLN.01/LBF