FNUS75 KRIW 311936
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
136 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1311 MDT ON AUGUST 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WIND TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY OR SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BERC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2-3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (92000-123600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2200. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    AT 4-7 MPH BY 2200...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25
                    MPH AFTER 0300.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.12 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 29 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 35
                    MPH AFTER 0300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (78400-98400 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-42 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.26 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 29 TO 31 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (106600-125200 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BERC
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120831.BUTTE.01/RIW