FNUS75 KRIW 011440
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
840 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0812 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ADDING MORE
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING STRONG. IN ADDITION
TO THE STRONG WINDS TODAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM EARLY THIS MORNING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
POSSIBLE. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE AT AROUND 0900...THERE IS
A LARGE ACTIVE AREA BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS...NO STORMS
CONTAINED WITHIN THIS AREA ARE CONSIDERED STRONG OR SEVERE...AND MOST
CELLS ARE PRODUCING WETTING RAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONGER STORMS AFTER 1400.

COOLER AIR PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT AND BROAD...MORE STABLE WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW CUMULUS TOWERS
SENT UP IN THE AFTERNOON WORKING OFF OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
TODAYS RAINS...BUT THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WSW AT 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE EVENING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER BUT ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD
HELP MODERATE THE IMPACT OF THE STRONGER WINDS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 45 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
                    60 MPH AFTER 1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900-6900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 32 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (109100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (182600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3300-4300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (167200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (81500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH INCREASING TO 40 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS .
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900-7900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (87400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (166900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
70. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...JOHN BARBORINAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120901.ALPIN.01/RIW