FNUS75 KRIW 012041
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
241 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1409 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN THE REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
THE WYOMING/IDAHO BORDER...SOUTH INTO UTAH. THESE STORMS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO
60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE WET...SO THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN AT THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS COULD GO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND COULD REFORM
AGAIN TOMORROW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTH OF THE FIRE BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IF WINDS CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CANOPY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE MUCH LOWER
TOMORROW...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. FLOW REMAINS
STEADY FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS LIKE JUST A DRY COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH AFTER 1600. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
LAL.................3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.36 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 37 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (152600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 29 TO 33 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (76000-90100 KNOT-FT) BECOMING FAIR
                    (45000-55000 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600-7600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 37 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (122000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (216200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...USFS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120901.BUTTE.01/RIW