FNUS75 KRIW 021634
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA WRA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1034 AM MDT SUN SEP 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0958 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MUCH DRIER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOOKING LESS LIKELY TODAY IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE
THAT A CELL COULD MOVE UP FROM THE GREEN RIVER BASIN...WHERE STORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY...BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF
THE LOW PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST A FEW CLOUDS TO POP UP
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG DUE TO THE LACK OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AND WILL THEN SHIFT
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300-8300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (102900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (188700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........56-59 PERCENT.
                    35-40 PERCENT AT MID SLOPE.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH...
                    INCREASING TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300-8300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3700-4700 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (168500 KNOT-FT).

.LABOR DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-4900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800-8800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (99800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (201300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...CAL ANACKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120902.ALPIN.01/RIW