FNUS75 KRIW 021948
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
148 PM MDT SUN SEP 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1315 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SLIGHTLY WARMER...MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE TODAY. MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
MONTANA TONIGHT...PUTTING NORTHERN WYOMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ADDING A BIT OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND INCREASING THE WIND SPEED AS IT PASSES. WIND SPEEDS
PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE WARMING
AND DRYING PATTERN ARRIVES ON TUESDAY EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT
DROPS OUT OF MONTANA...THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN OFFER A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER
RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BORDERLINE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 17 TO 19 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT(207300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-58 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35
                    MPH DECREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH
                    AFTER 0200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300-7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3300-4300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 33 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 21 TO 22
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND INCREASING TO 35
                    MPH AFTER 0200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (169300 KNOT-FT).

.LABOR DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12 TO 19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300-7300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 28 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (89900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (183900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...LOOKOUT
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120902.BUTTE.02/RIW