FNUS71 KCTP 031454 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR KINZUA SEARCH...CLARENDON FD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1054 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1037 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... LATE MORNING UPDATE... THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...INCLUDING NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MORE IN THE WAY OF THE SUN ALONG THE OHIO BORDER. THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...PERHAPS A LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM...IF WE GET SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGH HUMIDITY ALONG WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF DOWNPOURS WILL COME LATE IN THE DAY. .TODAY... LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM MIX HGT (FT)........1500 1900 2200 2400 TRANSPORT WIND......SE 16 SE 16 SE 15 SE 16 LAL.................1 2 4 4 HAINES INDEX........2 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... LAL.................9-15 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM MIX HGT (FT)........2100 1500 1600 1500 1000 900 TRANSPORT WIND......SE 18 SE 20 S 20 S 17 S 12 S 10 LAL.................4 4 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 2 2 2 .TUESDAY... LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2500-3400 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM MIX HGT (FT)........800 1000 2700 3200 2500 3200 TRANSPORT WIND......S 10 S 9 SE 5 SE 3 E 5 NE 6 LAL.................4 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........2 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MARTIN REQUESTED BY...TERRY GREGERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20120903.KINZU.01/CTP