FNUS75 KRIW 031635
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALPINE LAKE...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1035 AM MDT MON SEP 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1001 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE DRAWING IN VERY DRY AIR FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THE LOCAL EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL FORCE THE RH DOWN EVEN LOWER. THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR HUMIDITY TREND OVER THE NEW FEW DAYS. THERE
WILL BE VERY LOW RH DURING THE DAY WITH POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE A BIT CHALLENGING TODAY AS THE RAWS LOCATION
APPEARS TO BE MORE EXPOSED THAN THE NEW SPOT FORECAST LOCATION...SO
MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING TIMES
WHEN FULL ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS NOT OCCURRING...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE AT THIS ELEVATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIND.

THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME WETTING RAIN OR SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT IS
NOT GUARANTEED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF ABOUT HILAND.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
                    ...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
                    AFTER 1500.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 40 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900-8900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 39 TO 46 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (200200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 35 MPH INCREASING TO 45 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500-3000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 43 TO 45 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (248100 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 35 TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000-10000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 43 TO 46 MPH DECREASING TO 35 TO 36 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (250500 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 25 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...CAL ANACKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120903.ALPIN.01/RIW