FNUS75 KRIW 042015
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR POLE CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT TUE SEP 4 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1357 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR EACH NIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY
PEAKING BETWEEN 1500 AND 1900. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT RH
RECOVERY EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...WITH OVER A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE TREND IN HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 17 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (205400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3300-4300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (141200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (47300 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-13 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 12 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1500.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (55000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (114000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
12 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...JOHNSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120904.POLEC.01/RIW