FNUS75 KCYS 061044
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR REGION 23 COMPLEX...NSFS CDR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
444 AM MDT THU SEP 6 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE FIRE SITE TODAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN POOR OVERNIGHT AND
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO
REACH THIS CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 8 PM. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FIRE SITE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TURNING
ABRUPTLY NORTHERLY AND GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL WITH THIS FRONT. NOT
ALL THAT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SHOWER MAINLY THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
DRYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
                    SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL
                    1600...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86 TO 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 TO 15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
                    UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...UNTIL 1500 THEN
                    BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (63900-178200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48 TO 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 TO 95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    AFTER 0300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 4100 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BECOMING GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT
                    (43900-139500 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL AROUND
                    NOON...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40
                    PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68 TO 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 TO 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100-8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER NOON
                    (59500-93500 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...TERRY MCSHANE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120905.REGIO.01/CYS