FNUS73 KMKX 051142 FWSMKX SPOT FORECAST FOR HRRBP1205-SHOP...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 642 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0730 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY BUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. A DYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR THE BURN SITE NOW. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LAST AROUND 2 HOURS...THEN CLEAR. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE OTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS. INITIALLY A WEST WIND MAY BECOME EAST FOR A WHILE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN WEST AFTER THE FRONT. EXACT TIMING OF ALL THIS IS DIFFICULT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 62 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /8800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR /22900 KNOT-FT/. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............65 68 75 79 79 77 RH..............75 78 69 67 64 67 20 FT WIND......W 8 E 10 SW 8 SW 5 W 5 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 15 10 15 10 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 55. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 93 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (900-21700 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV.....CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............76 72 67 63 60 58 RH..............71 81 87 84 84 86 20 FT WIND......W 5 NW 5 NW 4 NW 3 NW 3 NW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 76. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 36 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO OR MODERATE. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (700-46800 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 60 67 72 74 75 RH..............90 75 61 46 40 38 20 FT WIND......NW 2 NW 3 NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...HENTZ REQUESTED BY...SEAN SALLMANN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120905.HRRBP.01/MKX