FNUS75 KRIW 061020
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CYGNET...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
420 AM MDT THU SEP 6 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1808 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF MONTANA
AND IDAHO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER THIS MORNING WITH
A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY ON THE FIRE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY STEADY OR INCREASING
HUMIDITY DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WILDFIRE AREA AROUND 3
PM...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. WARMER AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT) BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (85 PERCENT) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY NOON...THEN SWITCHING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 3 PM. GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    NEAR 10 MPH BY AROUND 3 PM.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL BY EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    NEAR 10 MPH BY AROUND 3 PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY MIDDAY.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH 3 AM. PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT)
                    AFTER 3 AM. WIDESPREAD FROST.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND
                    VARIABLE BY 3 AM. GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY 8 PM.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY 8 PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR DECREASING TO POOR EARLY.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20 PERCENT). SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS
                    POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH OR LIGHT NORTHWEST.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (17800-19000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WIDESPREAD FROST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120905.CYGNE.01/RIW