FNUS75 KRIW 060836 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK BUTTE...BLM RSD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 236 AM MDT THU SEP 6 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2039 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY... .DISCUSSION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH FROM THE NORTH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY AND COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING (30-40 PERCENT)...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79. MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.... INCREASING TO 17-20 PERCENT 1500-1800. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH LATE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST 1600-1800. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING...WEST SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THROUGH 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48. MAX HUMIDITY........74-77 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH 2000 TO 2200 THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75. MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1000...BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...MEGEL REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120905.ELKBU.01/RIW