FNUS75 KRIW 091113
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CYGNET...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
513 AM MDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1823 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR VERY DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. A WARMER AND DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MIXING
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. RIDGE TOP SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE FIRE
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FIRE...THOUGH A DISSIPATING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY STRAY INTO THE VICINITY WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WITH RIDGE TOP WINDS REMAINING GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER 1600 (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EARLY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-5100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (31800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (106500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED SHOWER
                    POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-84 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR
                    25 MPH EARLY EVENING BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1900-2400 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (117700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (64100 KNOT-FT) LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED SHOWER
                    AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20
                    MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900-6900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 35 TO 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (114300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (211800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER. PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEST SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH IN
THE EVENING.

.TUESDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. WEST SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120908.CYGNE.01/RIW