FNUS75 KTFX 081141
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW PASS COMPLEX...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
541 AM MDT SAT SEP 8 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0506 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WEST WINDS MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BRINGING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING AND DRYING. GENERAL WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER RIDGES WITH SLOPE-DRIVEN WINDS IN LESS
EXPOSED AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE
POOR OVER RIDGES AND THIS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.

ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM/DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1500 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
2100 SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH STRONG WEST WINDS
AND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
RIDGETOPS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
INVERSION...........WILL BREAK 1000-1200 HRS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 VALLEYS...72-77 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING UP-SLOPE/UP-VALLEY 3-8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 VALLEYS...45-55 MID-SLOPES/RIDGES.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT VALLEYS...30-40 PERCENT
                    MID-SLOPES/RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING DOWN-SLOPE/DOWN-VALLEY 3-5 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 15 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 AFTER 1500 HRS.
HAINES INDEX........5 HIGH.
INVERSION...........WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATING BY 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 VALLEYS...75-80 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...HOENISCH
REQUESTED BY...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120908.ELBOW.01/TFX