FNUS75 KRIW 100406
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSETHIEF  CANYON FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1006 PM MDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2121 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FIRE...

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 1800 MONDAY EVENING. THE DIFFICULT PART
OF THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRE AREA IS GOING TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
MOISTURE. FOR NOW BE WATCHFUL FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 0900 TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WIND AT 4 TO 7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    AT 8000 FEET.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1500-2000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY BY 1000. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 4 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 13 MPH BY 1300
                    WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1100. THEN SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHWEST AT 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR VERY MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1400.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........DECREASING CLOUDS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET WITH GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH.
                    THEN DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1200-2200 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH UNTIL 2100.
                    THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING POOR
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 13 MPH BY 1300
                    WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1100. THEN SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHWEST AT 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5400-6400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 15 MPH IN THE MORNING.
                    WEST AT 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON THE RIDGE TOPS.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AT THE LOWER ELEVATION.

.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS CHURCH
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120909.HORSE.01/RIW