FNUS75 KRIW 092000 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE HORSTHIEF FIRE...TETON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 200 PM MDT SUN SEP 9 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1329 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY... .DISCUSSION... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN THE FIRE AREA. AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FRONT. AFTER A LULL DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...BERC .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-82. MIN HUMIDITY........15-19 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 1500. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (16400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (100300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47. MAX HUMIDITY........76-79 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 2400. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100-7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2300-3300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (108100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (27000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79. MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 11 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER NOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH AFTER NOON. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100-7100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 26 TO 29 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (41300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (144300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...BERC REQUESTED BY...RICH OCHS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120909.LITTL.01/RIW