FNUS75 KTFX 091245
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW PASS COMPLEX...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
645 AM MDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0610 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE BURN AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS. THUS...A RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FEET.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
INVERSION...........WILL BREAK 1000 TO 1200 HOURS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40
                    MPH DECREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO BELOW 1000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......STRONG WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO
                    45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
INVERSION...........WEAK INVERSION DISSIPATING BY 1000 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER...EMANUEL
REQUESTED BY...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120909.ELBOW.01/TFX