FNUS75 KTFX 092016
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBOW PASS COMPLEX...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
216 PM MDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1349 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
ALONG A COLD FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY
1800 AND WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST EXPECTED. POOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT. VERY WINDY AND
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. WESTERLY WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE OVER
RIDGETOPS AND CANYONS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 MODERATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 VALLEYS. 65-70 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING
                    TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT VALLEYS. 30-40 PERCENT
                    MID-SLOPES/RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40
                    MPH DECREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO BELOW 1000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 25 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 VALLEYS. 50-55 RIDGES.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......STRONG WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 35 TO 40 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...VANDENHEUVEL
REQUESTED BY...GREAT FALLS DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120909.ELBOW.02/TFX