FNUS75 KRIW 102203
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSETHIEF FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
403 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1523 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY ON THE FIRE WILL BE POOR. ALTHOUGH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER OVER THE WILDFIRE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST...BUT WEAKER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED OVER THE WILDFIRE TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT)...BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLEAR (10 PERCENT) BY 9 PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    BECOMING SOUTH 5-10 MPH BY AROUND 9 PM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL BY 9 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    BECOMING SOUTH 5-10 MPH BY AROUND 9 PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (122300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    BY 9 PM.


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    10 MPH BY NOON...THEN WEST AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN
                    2 PM AND 4 PM. GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    15 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST
                    10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.


...TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
                    DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH BY 8 PM.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL BY 8 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR BY 8 PM.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5-10
MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH BY NOON.

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS CHURCH
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120910.HORSE.01/RIW